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IS model: A general model of forecasting and its applications in science and the economy

Updated: Jan 5

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, Feb 2011

In this paper, a general model of Interaction Systems (IS) is introduced that can be applied to many different fields covering economic, business, social, physical, and other phenomena, giving us both numerical estimates and qualitative insights into the system's dynamics. This is illustrated in two case studies. First, the IS model is applied to the global economy. The resulting model is tested against real global GDP data. The new IS model gave reliable estimates and presented a basic framework for understanding the nature of major economic shifts, including the recent global recession of 2009, by studying the dynamic relationship between demand and supply. In the other case, the IS model is applied to elementary chemical reactions in order to quantify the reaction kinetics. The result is the well-known rate law of chemical reaction kinetics, thus providing evidence of the proposed model's validity.


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