Updated: Aug 24
Following a previous entry about the global CO2 concentration level and a suggestion by a LinkedIn group member, I used an s-curve model to forecast the global temperature rise. I used actual data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)* from 1950 up to 2010. The final actual figures were calculated as differences from the base year 1950.
The generated forecast gives a 2.16 ºC temperature rise estimate between 2000 and 2100. This is near the middle of IPCC projections**, predicting a 1.8-4.0 ºC temperature increase by 2100. This new forecast is in accordance with the previous forecast about CO2 level in the atmosphere, predicting a CO2 concentration of more than 450 parts per million coupled with a temperature increase of more than 2 ºC.
Note that IPCC’s forecasts are based on different scenarios for various parameters such as CO2 emissions in the future, where on the other hand this forecast is based on the current trend as it unfolds from 1950 onwards without taking into account any new policies, measures, or other actions that may alter temperature levels in the future. Hence, the model of global temperature presented here is a simple conceptualization of this process that serves well as a quick, first approximation of the current trend as it unfolds in the future.
Download the Global warming- Temperature increase case study
*Source of actual data (global temperature anomalies-degrees C):
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center, Global Surface Temperature Anomalies, The Annual Global (land and ocean combined) Anomalies (degrees C)
Final actual figures calculated as differences from base year 1950
**Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
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